Trade reporter Ari Hawkins has said the United Arab Emirates had long signaled its current production strategy, describing the decision as part of a broader economic calculation tied to future output goals and OPEC quota expectations.
Speaking during an interview With ARISE NEWS on Wednesday,Hawkins noted that “the writing has been on the wall,” adding that while markets were still surprised by the timing, the UAE had been preparing for such a move through gradual capacity expansion.
He explained that the decision appears to be driven largely by economic considerations, particularly linked to the country’s production ambitions toward 2027 and existing OPEC constraints.
“In terms of other geopolitical dynamics, I think that sort of aligns the backdrop to quite a bit of this,” Hawkins said, stressing that the move cannot be separated entirely from regional tensions, including the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on Gulf states.
He pointed out that the UAE is positioning itself as a stable and reliable energy producer while simultaneously strengthening its identity as a major independent hub in the global oil market.
“At the end of the day, this is an economic decision,” he said, adding that it is already beginning to influence both regional dynamics and global energy markets, including the United States.
Hawkins further observed that the UAE is increasingly “individualizing itself” and stepping away from coordinated group restrictions in order to establish itself as a primary regional power.
To put it simply, he noted that the UAE appears unwilling to fully adhere to OPEC production quotas, particularly those influenced by Saudi Arabia’s leadership role within the group.
“That’s a correct read,” he said when asked whether the UAE was resisting OPEC directives, adding that the country is now “flexing its muscles” as it diversifies beyond oil.
Despite this, Hawkins cautioned that there is “no indication that the group itself is going to deteriorate,” though he acknowledged the move could still undermine OPEC’s internal cohesion.
On global energy prices, he a said it is too early to determine the full impact, warning that while increased production could eventually push prices lower, ongoing conflict particularly around the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk factor.
“There’s no indication that this will have any immediate effect,” Hawkins said, noting that oil prices are unlikely to fall in the short term.
He also linked recent price increases to heightened geopolitical pressure, including US policy moves toward Iran, which have contributed to market volatility.
“Despite this long-term effect of potentially lowering prices over time, the immediate situation is still driven by uncertainty,” he added, pointing to rising benchmark crude prices as evidence of continued instability.
Hawkins concluded that while the UAE’s strategy may reshape its role within OPEC and global energy markets over time, the immediate outlook remains dominated by conflict, supply uncertainty, and geopolitical tension.
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