Oil industry regulators, operators, and policymakers on Thursday cautioned that if the federal government must achieve its long-standing target of 3 million barrels per day by 2030, sector players must urgently align their digitalisation, capital investment, and policy frameworks.
This position dominated discussions at the 26th Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum (OLEF) held in Abuja, where the key stakeholders across the value chain highlighted the need for a coordinated, technology-driven approach to unlock production, improve efficiency, and strengthen energy security.
The event themed: “Beyond 3 Million Barrels Target: Harmonising Digitalisation, Capital and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimisation,” was organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Council.
Speaking at the event, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said recent reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) had begun to reposition Nigeria’s upstream sector, unlocking major investments and restoring investor confidence.
She disclosed that flagship projects such as Bonga North, Ubeta, and HI are expected to attract over $10 billion in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), following years of delays caused by regulatory uncertainty and fiscal ambiguity.
According to her, the introduction of clear rules, transparent processes, and defined timelines under the PIA has replaced discretion with predictability, significantly reducing investment risk and enabling operators to move forward with large-scale developments.
Eyesan noted that Nigeria’s vast hydrocarbon resources, estimated at over 37 billion barrels of crude oil and more than 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, have not translated into optimal output due to weak execution, stalled investments, and rising costs.
She stressed that achieving production targets of 2 million barrels per day and 10 billion cubic feet of gas by 2027, and scaling to 3 million barrels and 12 billion cubic feet by 2030, would require more than drilling, but a deliberate alignment of policy, capital, and technology.
“Let me highlight three recent case studies that exemplify how these reforms have enabled investment and delivered tangible results: Bonga North, Ubeta, and HI. …Collectively, these projects represent over $10 billion in new upstream investment, demonstrating that clear policy, firm regulation, and deliberate leadership are essential to unlocking real value and cementing Nigeria’s position as a competitive upstream destination,” she stated.
Central to this transformation, she said, is the adoption of digital technologies across both operations and regulation, with the commission already advancing a digital-first environment for approvals, reporting, and compliance.
She explained that tools such as digital twins, predictive maintenance, and real-time data analytics are increasingly critical for improving operational efficiency, reducing downtime, and enhancing recovery rates in a capital-constrained environment.
“…Digitalisation is also reshaping our regulatory landscape. Digital technology underpins operational excellence and must be at the center of regulatory oversight. The commission is advancing a digital-first environment where approvals, reporting, and compliance are managed through integrated platforms, delivering speed, transparency, accountability, and real-time visibility for operators.
“Beyond regulation, digitalisation must transform the entire value chain. For operators, real-time data is a competitive necessity, enabling faster, evidence-based decisions, lower operating costs, safer operations, and more reliable outcomes. Through digital twins, real-time monitoring, predictive maintenance, and advanced analytics, operations are more precise, downtime is minimised, and asset value is consistently enhanced,” she pointed out.
Eyesan also highlighted the importance of performance-based regulation, noting that new frameworks now tie field development approvals to sound reservoir management and improved recovery techniques, ensuring that assets are optimally developed and managed.
Also, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Saidu Mohammed, called for a deliberate focus on large-scale, high-impact projects to accelerate production growth. Mohammed emphasised the need for what he described as “Big Bank” projects capable of delivering hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil and billions of cubic feet of gas per day.
He argued that such projects are essential if Nigeria is to meet its production targets within the current decade, particularly in the context of evolving global energy dynamics and rising demand for reliable supply sources.
Mohammed revealed that the Authority is set to unveil Project NEXUS, a transformation initiative aimed at enhancing regulatory efficiency, supporting sustainable energy development, and positioning Nigeria as a leading energy hub in Africa.
At the national oil company level, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) signalled a more aggressive push towards digital transformation, particularly in the deployment of artificial intelligence.
The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), Bayo Ojulari, represented by the company’s Executive Vice President, Upstream, Udy Ntia, said NNPC would begin reviewing the budgets of its partners to assess their level of investment in AI and digital technologies.
He stressed that the industry can no longer afford to pay lip service to digitalisation, warning that failure to adopt data-driven approaches would lead to rising costs and declining competitiveness.
According to him, Nigeria possesses decades of valuable data, including well logs and seismic information dating back to 1956, much of which remains underutilised or stored in analogue formats.
He said harnessing this data through artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, and modern data infrastructure was critical to improving decision-making, reducing operational costs, and optimising production.
According to Ojulari, achieving 3 million bpd is not just a production target, but a commercial and technological opportunity, requiring coordinated action across operators, service providers, and regulators.
“We have rich data going back to 1956. We have logs that are still on paper, well logs, seismic information that are not being mined. We have so many things that we can begin to do.
“We have three to four years to get there. By next year, I’m going to be looking at everybody’s budgets. I want to see what everybody is doing with AI. Nobody is doing it today. Nobody. All we do is just talk. We have to do it as an imperative,” he said.
For his part, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, underscored the importance of automation and digitalisation in enhancing efficiency across the oil and gas value chain.
He said intelligent operations driven by data and technology are essential for reducing downtime, improving reservoir management, and optimising asset performance.
Ekpo emphasised that Nigeria’s energy strategy is anchored on creating an enabling environment that attracts investment while ensuring sustainability and environmental responsibility.
He reiterated the central role of natural gas in the country’s energy transition, noting that initiatives under the Decade of Gas are focused on expanding infrastructure, increasing domestic utilisation, and linking gas production to industrial development.
Besides, Roger Brown, Chief Executive of one of Nigeria’s biggest operators, Seplat Energy, said the company plans to significantly scale production through a combination of investment and operational efficiency.
Represented by the Managing Director of Seplat Onshore Ltd, Ibi-Ada Itotoi, the company disclosed that it is planning to invest about $6 billion in capital and operational expenditure to increase production to 500,000 barrels per day by 2030.
Brown noted that a key challenge facing the industry is the decline in output from ageing fields, estimating that Nigeria would need to add about 200,000 barrels per day just to stabilise current production levels.
To reach the 3 million bpd target, he said an additional 300,000 to 500,000 barrels would need to be developed, requiring both large-scale projects and incremental improvements in existing assets.
Earlier in his opening remarks, Chairman of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Council, Francis Nwaochei, said the forum was designed to move beyond discussions and deliver practical solutions to the industry’s most pressing challenges.
He noted that the theme of the 2026 edition reflects the need to rethink value creation in the oil and gas sector, with greater emphasis on data, disciplined financing, and adaptive regulatory frameworks.
Nwaochei said the forum would focus on policy, capital, and digital transformation, providing stakeholders with an opportunity to address funding gaps, regulatory constraints, and barriers to technology adoption.
Emmanuel Addeh
